As a result of last year’s downturn, which peaked in the second quarter of 2020, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) recently raised its projection for the global merchandise trade volume to a 10.8% growth in 2021 from the 8% increase expected in March this year. This year, the WTO predicts that export volume increase in Asia would be 14.4%.
It projects the same percentages for North America, South America, Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Africa, and West Asia for this year: 8.7% in North America, 7.2% in South America, 9.7% in Europe, 0.6% in the CIS, 7% in Africa, and 5% in West Asia.
Year-over-year growth was 22% in the second quarter of 2021 due to a lower base, but it is anticipated to decline to 10.9 and 6.6 percent in the third and fourth quarters due in part to the quick recovery in trade in the last two quarters of 2020. According to a news statement from the WTO, achieving the prediction for 2021 only calls for quarterly growth to average 0.8% per quarter in the second half of this year, or an annualized rate of 3.1%.
On the back of last year’s downturn, which peaked out in the second quarter of 2020, the World Trade Organization (WTO) recently upgraded its prediction for global merchandise trade volume to a 10.8% gain in 2021 from the 8% increase expected in March this year. This year, the WTO predicts that export volume increase in Asia would be 14.4%.
In 2021, imports are predicted to increase by 12.6% in North America, 19.9% in South America, 9.1% in Europe, 13.1% in the Commonwealth of Independent States, 11.3% in Africa, 9.3% in West Asia, and 10.7% in Asia. In 2021, it is predicted that the least developed nations’ (LDCs) exports and imports will rise by 5.3% and 5.5%, respectively.
India’s merchandise exports increased by 56.92% to a record $197 billion in the first half of this fiscal year. For the fiscal years 2021–2022, the nation has set a target of $400 billion for merchandise exports.
Inequitable access to vaccines, according to WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, is causing economic disparities between regions to worsen.
The longer vaccine inequity is allowed to exist, the more likely it is that even more severe coronavirus strains will develop, undoing all of our current health and economic advancements.
As the 12th ministerial conference approaches later this year, countries must come to an agreement on a robust WTO response to the COVID-19 pandemic that would serve as a platform for more quickly producing vaccines and fairly distributing them, noted Okonjo-Iweala.
Newspaper Fibre2Fashion Desk (DS)